Climate Research Study Predicts Increased Heavy Rainfall In Key Regions Of Saudi Arabia

Riyadh: A recent climate research study conducted by the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) has revealed that there will be a significant increase in heavy rainfall occurrences in specific regions of Saudi Arabia in the future. The study predicts a rise in heavy rainfall across the western coast of the Red Sea, the eastern side of the Kingdom along the Arabian Gulf coast, and the southwestern regions.

The climate model simulations conducted by the NCM indicate an overall increase in total rainfall across most parts of the Kingdom. Specifically, the frequency of heavy rainfall is expected to intensify in areas such as Madinah, Al-Qassim, Riyadh, the Eastern Province, Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and the western parts of Najran under medium and high climate scenarios for the near future (2021–2040).

Furthermore, the study projects that the increase in heavy rainfall will continue throughout the middle and end of the current century under medium and high scenarios. Notably, the southwestern regions of the Kingdom are likely to experience a higher frequency of heavy rainfall occurrences, with an estimated 25 to 30 events in the last two decades of the current century under high scenarios.

The findings of the study demonstrate a significant rise in rainfall rates and amounts in specific regions, while other areas may experience a decrease. The research highlights unprecedented rainfall intensity within short periods, with cities like Abha, Jeddah, and Riyadh experiencing recurring rainfall intensities every 10 years, reaching 113, 56, and 33 mm/day, respectively.

Over a span of 50 years, these intensities are projected to reach 45, 86, and 169 mm/day, respectively. For intensities recurring every 100 years, the study estimates them to be around 192, 99, and 50 mm/day for the same cities. These findings hold immense importance for impact, adaptation, and resilience studies across various sectors, including disaster management in the Kingdom.

Decision-makers and stakeholders can utilize this research to enhance long-term national planning and promote sustainable development in Saudi Arabia. By understanding the projected increase in heavy rainfall, authorities can effectively prepare and implement strategies to mitigate potential risks and ensure the well-being of the population.

The National Center for Meteorology's study represents a significant contribution to understanding and addressing the changing climate patterns in the Kingdom, setting the stage for proactive measures and sustainable policies to safeguard the nation's future.